The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. 03:30. They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). Here are the top 25 counties which voted over 60% for the Democrat party in 2008, and then voted Republican in 2016: There is no doubt these 25 counties heavily favor the Democrat party. If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). In other words, it's not whether Clinton wins Hillsborough that's important, but by how much. If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. BBC Reality Check breaks down the bill for the world's most expensive election, Arriving at a voting station to observe as a poll challenger on 4 November last, she sat down next to two people she didn't know. As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. That might mean needing to factor that in by a couple points. It's happened before. Jacksonvilles Duval County has been a reliable Republican performer over the years, though it nearly went for Obama in 2008 in large part due to high African-American turnout. Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. Here, local Republican candidates fuelled by Mr Trump's firebrand style almost wiped Democrats off the local political map. That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. Or itcould have almost 10.1 million residents, like Los Angeles County. They're just facts about the vote. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. It's New Hampshire's biggest county by population. Ottawa County accurately predicted every president since 1964 until 2020, The Ottawa County commissioner says people are happy with Trump's accomplishments, Sunrise at East Harbor State Park, Ottawa County, Ohio, Minority voters who changed their minds about Trump, Chris Rock jokes about Oscars slap in Netflix show, Harry: I always felt different to rest of family, Everything Everywhere wins big ahead of Oscars, PM to end asylum claims from small boat arrivals, Street fighting in Bakhmut but Russia not in control, US-made cheese can be called 'gruyere' - court. To make things more interesting we will only look at swing counties since the 2004 election. It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. (The highest value being again 66.1%). . We will only focus on the most recent elections to increase the pool of counties to analyze.). Relatively few counties across the nation switched party support in 2012, but Rockingham was one of them, flipping from Obama in 2008 to Romney. These counties could play an . What, if anything, did we miss? Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. It's the wrong question. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. From 1980 through 2016, there were19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. He would have to really drive up big margins in the less populous counties in the mountainous Western part of the state, as well as Chesterfield (south of Richmond) and Virginia Beach. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. Go on, look them up! You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. It is easy to gloss over this. Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. You can find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results 11. Other counties to watch: Denver suburbs Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson. Kerry Sheridan/AFP/Getty Images Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. We have looked at every imaginable scenario to build a case for the Democrat party winning the 2020 election based upon how our trusted counties voted. These counties arent the only ones that matter most swing states have a handful of critical counties, not just one or two but these 25 stand out, either for their voting history, population size or traditional impact on swing-state election results. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. With each new section we relaxed the constraint, to include the most friendly Democrat voting counties in the country (based on the 2008 election). Recently, though, social media users have shared a meme with statistics that they claim discredits his victory. It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. Democrats need to drive up the margins in Fulton and DeKalb. White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. Until this year. Really stop reading. So those suburban whites are key here and might tell a story not just about who wins the state, but who wins nationally. Those places will get the bulk of the presidential candidates time and their surrounding media markets will get the bulk of the television ad spending. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. But in 2020, 18 of these 19 bellwether counties voted for former President Donald Trump. Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally at the Abraham Lincoln High School on Jan. 31 in Des Moines, Iowa. Here is a look at the bellwether counties for the 2020 presidential race. . So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? Free and open-source. "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. Clinton will win Democratic Clark County, the states population hub and home to Las Vegas. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. For Trump to win, he needs to flip a place like Racine, which went for Obama narrowly. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. At one end of the I-4 corridor, Tampas Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida without winning Hillsborough. (subject to censorship). (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. GOP Chairman Dale Fellows noted that the population has been steadily aging in recent years. Suggest an improvement, report an issue, Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. He will need to cut into Clintons advantage here in North Carolinas second-most populous county since Clinton is likely to roll up the score in Democratic Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). In 2020,Biden received81,281,888 votes andTrump received74,223,251 votes, according to a tally byUSA TODAY. The county narrowly voted for Bush in 2000 but has gone Democratic in the three presidential elections since then, though never by more than 52 percent. As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below. Experts say that while traditional bellwether counties are whiter and less educated than the national average, there's no one element that unites them as political oracles. We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. We organized this by poll-closing time (all in Eastern time for the latest poll-closing times in that state), so you can follow along as the night goes: 1. But after twice voting for George W. Bush, it has since moved well to the left. Not a bad streak. "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. A Changing America Faces A Stark Choice This Election. It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. Yet Donald Trump received 10 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016 -- and lost. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. Not anymore. 2020 Election (1210) 6. Demographics (84) Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. Lake County is a perpetual nail-biter. Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. Election night is going to be information overload. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. Republicans have a voter registration advantage here but in recent presidential elections, its had consistently tight margins: In 2012 Obama won it by less than 4,000 votes. How Does The Electoral College Work And Is It Fair? Sumter County, . 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention) . And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. (i.e. Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . We believe this was a mistake. Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred.
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